Weather forecast accuracy generally decreases as the forecast period extends.
- One-day forecasts: Typically very accurate, with success rates around 96-98%.
- Three-day forecasts: Accuracy is generally around 90%.
- Five-day forecasts: Accuracy is just under 90%.
- Seven-day forecasts: Accuracy drops to around 80% or lower.
- 10-day (or longer) forecasts: Accuracy is around 50%.
Weather forecasting is getting less accurate
it’s honestly frustrating because you start planning your days around these forecasts. Climate change is literally why. The patterns seem way more erratic now — like the seasons are blending, and storms are popping up out of nowhere. So maybe it’s not entirely the technology’s fault.
I have noticed this too. I remember about 10-15 years ago the only way we got our weather was by the weather channel which had its own channel. You’d watch it for a about thirty mins waiting on your forecast. It would give you the 7 day outlook and if it said storms 6 days away between 10am and 2pm then right before or right after 10am and it would start 6 days later just as they said. All these people can say what they want about you being wrong but you cant disprove memory. Now they arent even very accurate 30 minutes before the storm. I am not saying it is their fault however, the reason behind why its so inaccurate i couldn’t tell you.
Its like the weather is so erratic now or the technology is somehow worse/different. Something is off/different. I have spoke with many friends who have said the same thing and even a few had brought it up to me when they found out i studied Meteorology.
Someone who has actually experienced, studied and knows what I’m talking about.
To people claiming “it’s always like this,” here. If you are or live with a weather nerd, you would know that ‘weather has become less accurate’ is exactly right.
Farmers don’t have the option of indulging in climate change denial. We’re too busy replanting after crazy late frosts, picking blooms off apple trees in fall and dealing with pests that didn’t used to survive winter.
Instead of a gradually warming Spring season like we used to have, we have a very late Winter now that creeps all the way into April/May.