Sanctions only starve the civilian population and not replace regimes with democratic ones. Theoretically the assumption is make the population suffer and they rise up and topple the target government. In reality, what happens is the regimes actually become stronger because sanctions are seen as an external attack on the sovereignty of the target country. Instead of blaming their government, people tend to blame the sanctioning countries for their suffering.
Has North Korea, Iran, Cuba, and Russia become democratic?
NK despite the embargo is now a nuclear state. Russia is still waging its war. Cuba hasn’t collapsed yet. Iran still has the capacity for a military build up.
Sanctions radicalize people more and radicalized people tend to become terrorists. Just look at how many terrorist organizations Iran has propped up because it has used Western sanctions as the cause of Middle eastern suffering.
Sanctions strengthened the dictator’s narrative by giving visible proof to his claims: that the “West hates us,” “they want to destroy us,” and “only I can protect you.” It pushed average citizens, who might have been neutral or skeptical, into a defensive, nationalist stance.
Instead of blaming citizens — most people in authoritarian states are trapped. They’re censored, isolated, brainwashed, and fear real consequences (like prison or losing everything or just death) if they resist. Expecting mass uprisings under these conditions is unrealistic. Survival and protecting family always come first for normal people.
For a people to work for a better life, they first need to know that a better life is possible. If they don’t, then all an authoritarian government really needs to do is to make sure that conditions aren’t too harsh for the majority of people to the point that they can’t live. You toss sanctions onto those people, and all you do is isolate them more.
“You all should now remove your own leader, if you don’t try hard enough and die trying so, and we will make you to suffer through hell”.
It is not the message people like.